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Risk Analysis

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The job of the Risk Analysis Unit (RAU) is to “drive” the operational work of the Agency as well as to develop and apply a common integrated risk analysis model (CIRAM), whose results should be incorporated in the development of a common core curriculum for border guards’ training; and to prepare general and tailored risk analyses to be submitted to its customers:
  • FRONTEX Operations Unit
  • EU Member States´ Border Guard Authorities
  • EU Council
  • EU Commission
Frontex Work Programme for 2006 further specifies RAU tasks to include preparation of risk and threat analyses for operational activities, as well as production of regular public and law enforcement bulletins.
In line with the above, the work of the Risk Analysis Unit focuses on:
  • Tailored risk assessments (for example: Tailored Risk Analysis Identifying Threats and Risks of Illegal Migration from the African Continent)
  • General risk assessments (for example: Annual Risk Assessment 2005) 
  • Bulletins (for example: First Law Enforcement Bulletin on Illegal Migration, May 2006)
  • Support for operational activities (for example: Joint Risk Assessment with Germany Regarding FIFA World Cup 2006)
In its work RAU uses the revised CIRAM. We also keep abreast of methodological developments in the EU countries. Frontex Risk Analysis Network (FRAN) meetings provide a forum for exchange of ideas on the subject. They are also a platform to present current work on the revision of CIRAM to risk analysis experts from Member States.
CIRAM: Common Integrated Risk Analysis Model
 
The Common Integrated Risk Analysis Model (CIRAM) was developed by a European Council Expert Group in 2002. The implementation of CIRAM in the Member States (MS)* was the responsibility of the former Common Unit. A Risk Analysis Centre (RAC) was set up in Helsinki in 2003 to compile the joint risk assessment on the European level.
 
Following the establishment of the European Agency for the Management of Operational Cooperation at External Borders of the Member States of the European Union (Frontex) the task of compiling joint risk assessments was transferred from the RAC, which closed on 1 May 2005, to Frontex.
 
The Risk Analysis Unit has revised CIRAM in order to align CIRAM with the tasks of Frontex and the developments in Border Management that have taken place since CIRAM was first developed.
 
*) In the CIRAM document the term Member State (MS) includes also Norway and Iceland, which are associated to Schengen co-operation if they are not specifically excluded. The same will also apply when Switzerland becomes an associated Schengen state.